Misconceptions About Scrum Became the Most Sensible Hypothesis

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  • black swan,

misconceptions about scrum became the most sensible hypothesis

Imagine you are at a skate park. The first person to try something falls, the second one falls, the third one falls etc. Imagine there is only 1 person out of 10 trying that succeeds. No, imagine you are about to watch the 11th person trying. Are you assuming it will get it right?

If you are like me trying to use bayesian thinking, you can infer by the high rate of failure that there are high probability that the next try will be a failure as well. This does not imply any judgment at all. It is just basics stats.

Most people I know believe they practice scrum, most of them don’t even know that there are the three pillars of scrum. It is easy to find out that they only think they know scrum because they had experiences that were called scrum. There is nothing bad about that. Actually, their algorithm to decided to believe that they did scrum is correct. In other terms, they are correct in term of epistemic truth and only failed in term of realistic truth.

The fact that they are not to blame is independent of the fact that they got it wrong ¹.

Therefore, when someone tells me per does scrum, basic stats tells me that per is most likely wrong as well, without thinking anything bad about this person. Again, this is only bayesian thinking.

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