The Irrational Hungry Judge Effect Revisited: Simulations Reveal That the Magnitude of the Effect Is Overestimated

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• External reference: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/judgment-and-decision-making/article/irrational-hungry-judge-effect-revisited-simulations-reveal-that-the-magnitude-of-the-effect-is-overestimated/61CE825D4DC137675BB9CAD04571AE58

The irrational hungry judge effect revisited: Simulations reveal that the magnitude of the effect is overestimated

simulation shows that the observed influence of order can be alternatively explained by a statistical artifact resulting from favorable rulings taking longer than unfavorable ones. An effect of similar magnitude would be produced by a (hypothetical) rational judge who plans ahead minimally and ends a session instead of starting cases that he or she assumes will take longer directly before the break. One methodological detail further increased the magnitude of the artifact and generates it even without assuming any foresight concerning the upcoming case.

— https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/judgment-and-decision-making/article/irrational-hungry-judge-effect-revisited-simulations-reveal-that-the-magnitude-of-the-effect-is-overestimated/61CE825D4DC137675BB9CAD04571AE58

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