Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgmentfleeting
- External reference: https://youtu.be/FdP0_QwI3JA
After studying the average of cognitive bias (meaning systematic errors in human cognitions), he studied the standard deviation.
In contrast with bias that we tend to provide explanation to, noise is more difficult to explain. Therefore, it is much more difficult to study.
It can lead to significant differences (in the hungry judge effect, it can lead to about 3 years of penalty difference in average 7 years penalty).
When there is room for cognitive bias, there is room for noise, and it is often more than you think.
Fighting against noise needs to develop decision hygiene. It like brushing your teeth, you don’t see what you fight against, but you know that you fight against it.
Like asking independently the opinion of a lot of people to have better forecast.