Négligence Des Taux De Base
FleetingSteve
![](https://konubinix.eu/ipfs/bafkreihiqwymfjofmxo2exvxarowkaapvnti7j4hhwbce5kshxiiduorlm?filename=a.png)
![](https://konubinix.eu/ipfs/bafkreiehbty2manaqpt4insaba2vors4wj5kjd5vrso2qfr3o43tigzw5a?filename=a.png)
time text https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=72.89s Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=72.89s helpful but with very little interest in people https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=78.09s or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=78.09s soul, he has a need for order and structure, https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=83.03999999999999s and a passion for detail. https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=85.03999999999999s Which of the following do you find more likely: https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=85.03999999999999s “Steve is a librarian”, or “Steve is https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=89.85s a farmer”? —
Linda
![](https://konubinix.eu/ipfs/bafkreiaclimo5obuor4xocr657at5jr2ogmdp7s2cnllogfbkbtf6i5joq?filename=a.png)
![](https://konubinix.eu/ipfs/bafkreidc42ole3lrfehcqoalslpnekt7i2hd7kyxbl2v2diwyvo3gehcee?filename=a.png)
time text https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=646.73s Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=646.73s and very bright. She majored in philosophy. https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=652.67s As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=656.91s and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=660.3s They were then asked what is more likely: https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=660.3s That Linda is a bank teller, or that Linda https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM&t=667.29s is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement —
![](https://www.smbc-comics.com/comics/1572537517-20191031.png)
Notes pointant ici
- bad experiences tend to polarize
- geometric explanation of Bayes theorem
- nous sommes de mauvais guestimateurs
- should be used with past data as anchor