How to Make Better Decisionsfleeting
- External reference:
- External reference: https://a16z.simplecast.com/episodes/how-to-make-better-decisions-rerun-GXaJe2p7
when we face a failure, we study the reason why we failed, but when we succeed, we don’t study the reasons why we succeed
To me, it is a consequence of the fundamental attribution error. We behave as if we thought that:
- if we succeeded, it is because we are awesome, there is nothing to study,
- if we failed, it must be that something went wrong and we must find out what it is.
pro/cons list are better than nothing, but are still bad
pro/cons list are unidimensional, while problem often are multidimensional
pro/cons tend to amplify confirmation bias
At the beginning of the study, we always have a hint of a preferred solution. When thinking about this list, we (wysiati) tend to see only the pro in favor of stuff confirming our hint and seeing cons of stuff not confirming the other choices.
Think about the worst choice, imagine how this impact your expected happiness in one year, one month, one week. If you think it won’t impact it much, then don’t spend much time in doing the choice.
For instance, in a restaurant, if you don’t have good reasons to think that the choice of meal will impact your overall happiness, then don’t take too long to chose.
You can take the risk of the worst outcome, because it won’t impact you much.