Konubinix' opinionated web of thoughts

How to Make Better Decisions


a16z decision making strategies,

when we face a failure, we study the reason why we failed, but when we succeed, we don’t study the reasons why we succeed

To me, it is a consequence of the fundamental attribution error. We behave as if we thought that:

  • if we succeeded, it is because we are awesome, there is nothing to study,
  • if we failed, it must be that something went wrong and we must find out what it is.

pro/cons list are better than nothing, but are still bad

pros and cons fallacy

pro/cons list are unidimensional, while problem often are multidimensional

pro/cons tend to amplify confirmation bias

At the beginning of the study, we always have a hint of a preferred solution. When thinking about this list, we (wysiati) tend to see only the pro in favor of stuff confirming our hint and seeing cons of stuff not confirming the other choices.

hedonic test

See view from above, dichotomy of control.

Think about the worst choice, imagine how this impact your expected happiness in one year, one month, one week. If you think it won’t impact it much, then don’t spend much time in doing the choice.

xkcd: Is It Worth the Time?

For instance, in a restaurant, if you don’t have good reasons to think that the choice of meal will impact your overall happiness, then don’t take too long to chose.

You can take the risk of the worst outcome, because it won’t impact you much.

Notes linking here